We’re six weeks into 2024. When the ink is finally dry what do you think The story of 2024 will be? Certainly a U.S. election comes to mind. Is that the lasting headline? Do we resolve a conflict or two around the world? Will another one start? Will interest rates go up or down? Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce didn’t get engaged 6 weeks in but there’s certainly still time for that to be the lead when you google ‘What happened in 2024?’.
Let’s look at 2024 a different way for our predictive purposes. Here’s a fact to set the stage: 2024 will have the largest crowd of people turn 65 in the United States in the history of our country. John McEnroe will destroy 65 tennis rackets in a fit of rage, Jim Nantz will greet all of his guests with ‘Hello Friends’ and Roger Goodell will cash his big NFL paycheck as they, and 4.1 million other Americans, blow out their birthday candles this year. (Side note: 2025 is actually the largest turning 65 crowd..we’ll get to almost 4.2 million Americans next year and then we’ll start to decrease the bar chart for new 65 year olds until us millennials get to bring back the ‘Ok, boomer’ memes and do yet another thing better).
6 weeks into 1959, when these two-legged creatures were born, did anyone imagine the world as it is today? Did anyone think about what it would look like 65 years into the future? Would you have made more money betting on progress and prosperity and growth or reading the headlines of the day and being worried about the challenges? Before you answer, let me remind you that we should add Alaska and Hawaii to the birthday wishes. They’ll both be just 65 years old this year. 58% of the world’s population was illiterate in 1959. We’re at 13% that can’t read this blog today. Two monkeys were the first living beings in space 65 years ago and now with a couple of connections and a hefty bank account you and I could be strapped in next to Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk if we want to be.
The world changes. The world has gotten better. Here’s a sobering thought. That huge collection of bambinos that were born in 1959…they were only supposed to live 61.6 years. They look amazing based on the relative fact that they actually should be dead!
This is such a good chart. There are certainly risks and challenges that lie ahead. There are things that will change. There are technologies that we haven’t even thought about yet and there are some that will die. In 1959 Walt Disney…the actual guy, not the company…produced Sleeping Beauty. It was the first film done on 70mm film with stereophonic sound. It’s only 65 years later and I don’t know about you, but I haven’t a clue what 70mm film or stereophonic sound is. I can pull up Sleeping Beauty on my iPhone and watch it right now though if you’d like to bring some popcorn.
Predictions are dumb. Headlines will yellow over time. Challenges certainly lie ahead when you think about deficits and interest rates and politics. Challenges lie ahead in every area of our lives. We have them in healthcare and technology and trade. We have them in law and immigration and peace. I have them raising a 15-year-old girl. I don’t pretend to know the answer to any of those challenges, but I like to think 65 years from now we’ll have made progress (hopefully sooner than that for the 15-year-old). That progress is valuable. It also creates value. We had challenges in 1959. 65 years later we’ve made some progress. That progress has been valuable. Pull up a chart of the S&P 500 from 1959 to today and you’ll see that it has certainly created value.
Past performance does not guarantee future results and this is not a recommendation to buy the S&P 500 since an investment cannot be made directly in an index.